Assessing Mexico's Mid-Term Shifts and Power Dynamics
MORENA's sweeping victories in the midterm elections redefine Mexico's political map, securing 22 governorships. Despite setbacks in Mexico City, the party maintains a majority in Congress. Eyes turn to 2024, with Claudia Sheinbaum leading MORENA and a unified opposition emerging.
In the recent midterm legislative, municipal, and gubernatorial elections in Mexico, held in June 2021 and spanning into 2022 and 2023, the political landscape underwent a significant transformation. The results not only shaped the composition of the Congress and governorships but also marked a profound reconfiguration of territorial power, particularly in favor of MORENA (Movimiento Regeneración Nacional).
One of the most striking outcomes of the electoral process is MORENA's remarkable expansion of territorial influence. With victories in 22 out of 32 states, MORENA now governs over 68% of the country's GDP and commands the support of 69% of the population. Additionally, the Green Ecologist Party (PVE), a key ally of MORENA, holds power in San Luis Potosí. This dominance is a testament to MORENA's growing influence at the regional level, positioning the party as a formidable force in Mexican politics.
Conversely, the opposition finds itself in a challenging position, governing in only nine states. The National Action Party (PAN) leads in five states, followed by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the Citizen Movement with two states each. The asymmetry in territorial control underscores MORENA's current stronghold, leaving the opposition with limited executive power across the nation.
While MORENA's territorial dominance is evident, the party faced setbacks in Mexico City, losing the majority of mayorships to the Alianza Va por México coalition. In Congress, MORENA experienced a decline in seats, dropping from 252 in the 2018-2021 Legislature to 202 in the current 2021-2024 Legislature. Despite these setbacks, MORENA maintains a simple majority, thanks to strategic alliances with other parties.
Looking ahead to the 2024 Presidential race, the Fourth Transformation (4T) movement, as this political stage is dubbed, has nominated Claudia Sheinbaum, former Head of Government of Mexico City, as its candidate. The selection process involved rigorous campaigning and surveys, culminating in Sheinbaum's victory. The other candidates have rallied behind Sheinbaum, with ex-chancellor Marcelo Ebrard being the final prominent figure to align himself with the chosen candidate.
On the opposition side, a negotiated process among parties resulted in Bertha Xóchitl Gálvez becoming the candidate of the Frente Amplio por México. This coalition, comprising the National Action Party (PAN), Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), presents a united front to challenge MORENA's continued dominance.
As Mexico navigates through its electoral cycle, the landscape is marked by MORENA's unprecedented territorial power and the challenges faced by the opposition. The upcoming 2024 Presidential race promises to be a pivotal moment in Mexican politics, with Claudia Sheinbaum leading MORENA's charge and the unified opposition seeking to alter the trajectory of power in the nation. The dynamics set in motion by the recent elections will undoubtedly shape the future of Mexico's political landscape.
