Can Mexico's Agricultural Sector Survive the Challenges Ahead?

Mexico's agricultural industry, a vital component of the nation's economy and a significant player in global food production, is facing a confluence of challenges that threaten its productivity and long-term stability. Insecurity, increasingly erratic weather patterns due to climate change, and a growing scarcity of water are creating a perfect storm, according to a stark warning from the Consejo Nacional Agropecuario (CNA), the National Agricultural Council.

The CNA, under its new president, Jorge Estévez, has delivered a pointed message to the federal government: "No nos dejen solos," ("Don't leave us alone"). The plea underscores the sector's vulnerability and its dependence on government action to address the multifaceted crises it faces.

"The countryside is especially vulnerable to insecurity," Estévez stated, pointing to the pervasive crime and violence that has plagued rural areas for years. "With robberies and plastics with the memory of everything in the country, I have been a witness to how insecurity, crime, and violence have been on the rise in recent years."

Beyond insecurity, the sector is grappling with the tangible effects of climate change. Estévez highlighted the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, asserting, "Extreme climates are more frequent and present with more pests and diseases." This, he warned, poses a significant threat to future harvests, potentially triggering "large-scale crop failures that would test our food security." The increase of productivity, with a fundamental rol in the climate, that "is playing with us and we with him, that translates into a great impact to the field, reducing our outcome."

Water scarcity, however, may represent the most immediate and daunting challenge. The CNA emphasized that 75% of the liquid consumed is for agricultural production.

"We are aware that the 75% of the liquid we consume is for production of food," said Estévez.

He also proposed that the National Water Plan needs to be considered, where there is a modern hydraulic infrastructure "that allows us to produce with less water".

The CNA's assessment paints a complex picture. While Mexico boasts a substantial agricultural surplus – reaching 7,795 million dollars, according to the CNA – its reliance on exports to the United States creates vulnerabilities. The country, Estévez noted, exports to 160 countries. The U.S., however, receives 80% of the total.
"We are the first food supplier to the United States," Estévez said. "We are present at the table of all Americans with 70% of vegetables and more than 50% of the fruits they consume."

The CNA's concerns extend beyond domestic issues, touching upon the intricacies of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), or T-MEC as it is known in Mexico.

"We have it clear that we are indispensable, irreplaceable partners for the United States and we want to come out stronger from this challenge," Estévez said, referencing the trade agreement. While acknowledging the importance of open borders and tariff-free trade, he stressed the need to "develop competitive and specific financial products for our farmers."

The council is not solely focused on problems; it also proposes solutions. A key demand is greater government support for agricultural financing. "We are not asking for subsidies," Estévez clarified, "but we are asking for a regulatory framework that gives certainty to financial intermediaries to support agriculture, including long-term loans to mechanize irrigation."

The CNA's urgent call to action serves as a reminder of the interconnectedness of economic stability, environmental sustainability, and national security. The agricultural sector's success, the council argues, is inextricably linked to Mexico's overall prosperity. The final request to the federal government by the CNA president, was: "Don't leave us alone".