A Mathematical Model Developed to Predict Future Agave Prices

According to historical data from the Tequila Regulatory Council (CRT), since 2009 the price of agave has increased exponentially year after year, reaching the historical record of more than 30 pesos per kg in recent years.

In order to have tools to project strategies to ensure the supply of Tequila, researchers from the Autonomous University of Guadalajara (UAG) developed a multivariable mathematical model capable of predicting the future price of agave.

One of the greatest challenges facing the Agave - Tequila production chain is the fluctuating price of Agave Tequilana Weber blue variety, the raw material for Tequila production.

The research project is led by Dr. Armando Campos Rodríguez, Professor-Researcher, with the participation of Mtro. David E. Aguilar Hernández, graduate of the Master's program in Tequila Processes, and QFB. Walter M. Warren Vega, a graduate of the Pharmaceutical Chemistry Biologist program; as well as with the collaboration of Dr. Ana Itzel Zárate Guzmán, Dr. Marco Antonio Zárate Navarro and Dr. Luis Alberto Romero Cano, professor-researchers of the Department of Biotechnological and Environmental Sciences of the UAG.

Based on the statistical analysis of historical data provided by the CRT, it was possible to propose a mathematical model that considers environmental, economic and social aspects as variables.

The variables selected for measurement were the inventory of available plants, total tequila production, dollar exchange value and annual accumulated rainfall.

The proposed model makes it possible to reliably predict future scenarios, information that will be very useful for the Agave-Tequila production chain to develop strategic planning that will allow the tequila industry to maintain its constant growth rate and ensure the quality of the product.

This information will also help increase the benefits for all participants in the production chain.

Price stability

A five-year period of agave price stability with slight increases is estimated, and then, starting in 2024, the price will begin to decrease gradually.

The academics informed that "it is important to mention that the model has a better estimate in the first years and as we advance in the estimation years it decreases, so it is essential to update the database year by year to estimate the future price adequately".

The fluctuations that the price could suffer may be associated with shortages due to extraordinary scenarios that may occur due to climate change or global economic crises, so estimates should not be considered invariable for any reason.
Finally, the research perspectives mention that although the proposed variables have the greatest impact and their use in the mathematical model satisfactorily predicts fluctuations in the price of Agave tequilana Weber blue variety, these are not the only factors to be considered.

Criminal acts associated with plant theft is a key factor that must be studied in depth to obtain reliable data for input into the model.

Likewise, the monitoring of key factors for the correct growth of the plant should be studied in detail, some of them are the nocturnal climatic conditions and the presence of diseases in the crop fields; the correct monitoring of these parameters will allow establishing a useful historical data base to strengthen the mathematical model and improve the estimation of the future price.

The discussion of the results obtained is published as an open-access scientific article in Foods magazine, published by MDPI, under the title "Development of a Predictive Model for Agave Prices Employing Environmental, Economic, and Social Factors: Towards a Planned Supply Chain for Agave-Tequila Industry".

The full paper can be accessed at the following address:
https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/11/8/1138