How Mexico Must Adapt to a Trump Administration

Let’s face it: being neighbors with the United States is a bit like living next to a bloke who’s bought himself a supercar, built an infinity pool, and hosts parties every weekend while you’re struggling to fix your leaky roof. Sure, he might lend you a cup of sugar, but only if you’re ready to fork over a kidney for it. Now, toss Donald Trump back into the equation as America’s president, and suddenly it’s not just a supercar—it’s a monster truck revving its engine on your front lawn.

This is the reality Mexico faces, according to a gathering of academics from UNAM, the intellectual powerhouses of Latin America. And they didn’t mince their words. Trump’s victory, they said, signals stormy weather for Mexico, particularly in terms of migration, security, and trade. It’s not just a drizzle, mind you, but a full-blown hurricane of detention centers, deportations, and tariffs. And it’s all wrapped up in Trump’s signature package of “America First”, which translates roughly into “everyone else, get stuffed.”

Silvia Núñez García, an expert with a Rolodex full of insights on North America, pointed out that American society remains deeply divided. Trump racked up a staggering 74.5 million votes, while Kamala Harris—standing in for Biden’s progressive ideals—secured 69 million. This, she explained, is no mere spat at the Thanksgiving table. It’s a full-blown civil war of ideologies, with Mexico caught in the middle like the hapless referee of a particularly heated pub brawl.

Her takeaway? While Mexico might not be thrilled with its overbearing neighbor’s antics, there’s no chance of moving house. Like it or not, the two countries are chained together, condemned to share a fate dictated largely by Washington. Or, more specifically, by whatever Trump happens to tweet at 3 a.m. between bites of his McDonald’s cheeseburger.

One of the panelists, Mariana Aparicio Ramírez, laid it out plain and simple: Mexico should brace itself for a surge of mass detentions and deportations. Trump, ever the showman, has promised to “seal the border” like some medieval lord fortifying his castle. And let’s be honest—he has a knack for making the politically unthinkable disturbingly plausible.

Imagine, if you will, the chaos of tens of thousands of Mexicans and Latinos suddenly thrust back across the border. It would be like trying to fit a whale into a bathtub. Mexico, already grappling with its own socioeconomic issues, would need to perform a miracle to absorb this influx.

And then there’s the matter of Trump potentially designating Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations. That might sound like a bold move, but it could completely upend the delicate balance along the border. One minute you’re negotiating trade agreements, and the next you’re ducking under the table as a drone flies overhead.

According to Núñez García, Mexico hasn’t exactly been acing its foreign policy homework. In recent years, the country has been as present on the international stage as a student who forgot there was an exam. Resources for the Foreign Ministry have been slashed, and Mexico has largely faded into the background. But with Trump at the helm once more, Mexico needs to shake off the cobwebs and step up.

The question is, can Mexico do it? Can it navigate the treacherous waters of U.S. foreign policy, playing nice with Republicans one minute and cozying up to Democrats the next? Or will it remain the battered piñata at America’s geopolitical fiesta?

Aparicio Ramírez also raised the specter of tariffs, Trump’s favorite weapon in his economic arsenal. It’s a familiar playbook: if Mexico doesn’t toe the line on security or immigration, it might find itself on the receiving end of a tax-shaped smackdown. And while tariffs might sound dull and bureaucratic, they’re anything but. For Mexico, they could mean the difference between economic growth and a plunge into fiscal purgatory.

This potential strain on the bilateral relationship isn’t just about dollars and cents. It’s about power. And Trump, as we know, loves nothing more than reminding people who’s in charge. If Mexico wants to hold its own, it’ll need to adopt a pragmatic—and occasionally harsh—approach to cooperation.

Between Tariffs and Dependence

Claudia Maya López didn’t sugarcoat the grim truth: Mexico’s economy isn’t just tied to the United States—it’s shackled to it with industrial-strength chains. Over 80% of Mexico’s trade flows northward, making it less of a partnership and more of a dependency. If Trump decides to slap tariffs on Mexican goods, it’s not just a slap on the wrist—it’s a knockout punch to Mexico’s economic jaw.

While Trump champions protectionism with all the fervor of a bulldog guarding its bone, Mexico is as open to foreign trade as a piñata at a children’s party. López pointed out the glaring vulnerabilities in this setup: Mexico imports a staggering portion of its basic goods, including, embarrassingly, the very corn used for its beloved tortillas. A nation that can’t even grow enough of its staple crop is, let’s face it, not exactly in the driver’s seat when it comes to self-reliance.

With Trump likely to accelerate deportations, López offered a glimmer of hope amid the gloom. Instead of treating deportees as a burden, why not integrate them into the labor market? More specifically, why not send them to the countryside to tackle the basic issue of food security? It’s a bold idea, albeit one that highlights another glaring issue: Mexico’s rural sector has been so neglected that it now relies heavily on imports just to feed its population.

But if Mexico doesn’t act quickly, these deportees could become fodder for the country’s most infamous employer—the drug cartels. As López bluntly put it, “the main employer in this country is the drug trafficker.” And she’s not wrong. Without strong public policies that create jobs and invest in infrastructure, deportees risk being swept into the dark underworld of organized crime. It’s a vicious cycle that Mexico can’t afford to perpetuate.

If you thought Trump’s rhetoric was fiery before, Tomás Milton Muñoz Bravo warns it’s about to get turbocharged. Anti-immigrant policies, raids, and family separations will ramp up, all while neo-Nazi and fascist groups bask in a renewed sense of legitimacy. During Trump’s first term, acts of violence against minorities skyrocketed by 30%. This wasn’t just rhetoric—it was a clarion call for bigots to take their hatred to the streets.

As for programs like DACA, which shielded over half a million young immigrants from deportation, their survival is now teetering on a knife’s edge. These aren’t just numbers; they’re real people—dreamers who’ve built their lives in the U.S. but now face the chilling prospect of being uprooted. Trump’s hardline stance also threatens to slash funding for refugee and asylum programs, leaving countless lives in limbo.

But it gets messier. Trump’s policies are likely to pit the federal government against so-called “sanctuary” states and cities—places like California and New York that offer protections to undocumented immigrants. This isn’t just a bureaucratic spat; it’s a full-blown ideological clash that could reshape America’s immigration landscape. And caught in the crossfire? Mexico, which will have to manage the fallout from increasingly hostile U.S. policies.

Muñoz Bravo delivered a stinging indictment of Mexico’s diplomatic readiness—or lack thereof. During Trump’s first term, there was talk of transforming consulates into robust ombudsman offices that could better protect Mexicans abroad. Instead, budgets were slashed, and these plans fizzled faster than a damp firework.

Now, more than ever, Mexico’s diplomatic corps needs a revamp. This isn’t the time for amateur hour; seasoned professionals must be at the helm to safeguard the interests of Mexicans living in the U.S. Whether it’s through legal aid, advocacy, or just providing a shoulder to lean on, consulates must become lifelines for their communities.

So where does this leave Mexico? In a word: cornered. Trump’s policies are a direct threat to its economy, its social fabric, and its sovereignty. But as the academics at UNAM pointed out, all is not lost. Mexico has the tools to fight back, but it will take more than wishful thinking. It will take a bold, comprehensive strategy that prioritizes economic independence, diplomatic finesse, and social integration.

Because if there’s one thing we know for sure, it’s this: Trump doesn’t play by the rules. And if Mexico wants to thrive, it can’t afford to either.