How Mexico's Population Policy Shortcomings Threaten Development

In the complex interplay between population dynamics and national development, Mexico is facing a demographic crisis that has been largely ignored by its policymakers. Despite warnings from experts and the clear evidence of shifting demographic trends, the country has yet to adopt a coherent population policy that aligns with its broader development goals. This inaction, according to Carlos Welti Chanes, a researcher at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), threatens to squander Mexico’s demographic bonus—its window of opportunity to leverage a young and economically active population for national growth.

At the recent University Seminar on the Social Issue, Welti Chanes delivered a pointed critique of Mexico’s failure to integrate population management into its national development strategy. “Numerous governments have ignored the need to have a population policy as part of a national development strategy,” he said, outlining how a lack of strategic planning has left the country ill-equipped to handle its demographic shifts. This neglect is evident in the underfunding of population-related programs and the weakening of key institutions like the National Population Council (CONAPO).

The Demographic Bonus

Mexico, like many developing nations, is experiencing what economists call a "demographic bonus"—a period when the working-age population outnumbers dependents (children and the elderly), offering a prime opportunity for economic growth. But Welti Chanes argued that this potential is being wasted. According to data from the 2023 National Survey of Demographic Dynamics, nearly one million people aged 15 to 39 emigrated from Mexico in the past five years, with 90% of them moving to the United States. This exodus represents a significant loss of human capital at a time when the country should be harnessing the energy and innovation of its youth.

"The human capital that should be composed of young people, in significant proportions, is now being relegated to informal, precarious jobs or unemployment," he warned. This is a striking failure, considering the enormous economic potential these young people represent.

The academic underscored that Mexico's lack of a comprehensive population policy is not an isolated issue. Countries around the world are grappling with demographic shifts—whether it is rapid population growth or aging populations—but many have taken proactive steps to manage these changes. In contrast, Mexico’s approach remains reactive and short-term.

The Shifting Role of Women and Fertility

Mexico’s population policy—or lack thereof—cannot be discussed without acknowledging the profound social transformations it has enabled, particularly in relation to women's rights and fertility choices. Over the past five decades, Mexico successfully reduced its fertility rate by providing women with access to contraception and the freedom to decide when and how many children to have. This shift has allowed women to pursue careers, education, and personal growth without being confined by traditional expectations of motherhood.

But as Welti Chanes pointed out, this success has given rise to new challenges. Fertility rates in Mexico have now fallen below the generational replacement level, a trend that mirrors the experiences of more developed nations. Initially, this was seen as a victory for women’s autonomy and a step toward sustainable population growth. However, it has since set off alarm bells among demographers and economists alike.

Countries like Japan and Italy, where fertility rates have plummeted, are already facing severe economic and social consequences from population decline and aging. These nations are now grappling with how to maintain a productive workforce while shouldering the rising costs of an aging population. For Mexico, which is still relatively young but aging quickly, the window to act is closing fast.

Facing the Demographic Winter

Welti Chanes warned that Mexico must prepare for what is being termed a "demographic winter"—a period of prolonged low fertility and population aging. "This is an irreversible trend," he stated, citing data from Mexico's 2020 Census, which shows that 21.9% of women aged 30 to 34 are childless, a figure that declines only slightly among older age groups. While this shift reflects greater reproductive freedom, it also signals potential economic challenges ahead, as fewer children mean a shrinking future workforce and higher dependency ratios.

Countries in Europe, facing similar trends, have already begun promoting higher fertility rates in younger generations, although with limited success. A growing percentage of young people no longer desire large families, or in some cases, any children at all. Mexico, Welti Chanes argued, should not follow this path. Instead of attempting to artificially boost fertility rates, the country should focus on expanding opportunities for young people and women who opt not to become mothers.

“Instead of making increased fertility an objective, as is already being proposed in European countries, we must act to expand development opportunities for young people, particularly for women who do not choose motherhood,” he said. This forward-thinking approach would prioritize individual freedom while ensuring that the country's demographic shifts do not derail its economic and social stability.

As the proportion of elderly citizens grows, Mexico will face mounting pressure to fund social security systems and healthcare services. The academic drew on the work of Czech demographer Tomas Frejka to highlight the economic consequences of aging populations. A shrinking labor force and a growing elderly population create a structural imbalance that could lead to slower economic growth and higher public spending.

The numbers paint a stark picture. By 2030, it is projected that one in five Mexicans will be over the age of 60. The challenge for Mexico is twofold: how to support this aging population while maintaining economic productivity and ensuring that younger generations are not overburdened by the costs of their elders' care.

A Call for Long-term Population Strategy

Reflecting on the discussions at the University Seminar, Rosa María Ruvalcaba, a former professor and researcher at El Colegio de México, criticized the absence of a long-term, strategic vision from the Mexican government. “There has not been a long-term strategic vision of the State in designing population policy,” she said. Ruvalcaba emphasized that this lack of foresight extends to areas like housing, where demographic trends could be used to better plan for future needs.

For instance, a young single person requires different housing than a couple or an extended family, and policymakers must also consider the phenomenon of the “empty nest,” where aging parents live alone after their children move out. A well-designed population policy could address these needs in a way that anticipates changes rather than merely reacting to them.

Mexico’s demographic crossroads present both challenges and opportunities. The country’s current trajectory, however, points to missed opportunities and looming crises. If Mexico continues to ignore the need for a coherent population policy, it risks not only squandering its demographic bonus but also entering its demographic winter unprepared.

The time to act is now. Policymakers must develop a long-term, comprehensive strategy that addresses population dynamics in the context of economic development. This strategy must prioritize the empowerment of young people, particularly women, and ensure that social security systems can support an aging population without collapsing under the strain. Without such reforms, Mexico’s demographic advantage will soon become its greatest burden.