Mexico Plans to Restart Oil Shipments to Cuba, Risking Fresh Tensions With Washington

President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed Mexico will resume oil exports to Cuba through private intermediaries rather than state-owned Pemex, a workaround designed to shield Mexico City from the kind of U.S. sanctions blowback that halted shipments earlier this year. The scheme relies on non-Pemex companies with fuel-trading permits to sell hydrocarbons to Cuba, bypassing the direct state-to-state transfers that drew Washington's ire in January.

Sheinbaum made the announcement Monday during her daily morning press conference, saying the mechanism would involve "private companies that have permission to deliver fuel to Cuba." She added that the resumption is being handled "commercially, not as a humanitarian matter." The shift follows recent reforms in Havana: Cuba's National Assembly approved a package of 176 measures that, among other changes, opened fuel imports and commercialization to domestic and foreign private firms. That legal change creates the channel Mexican companies can now use.

Mexico became Cuba's primary oil supplier after the January 3 capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by U.S. military forces. But the flow lasted only weeks. On January 29, the Trump administration threatened additional tariffs on any country supplying hydrocarbons to Cuba directly or indirectly, prompting Sheinbaum to suspend Pemex shipments. Trump said at the time he had asked Sheinbaum to halt oil deliveries to Cuba and has since maintained pressure on the island.

Before the suspension, Mexico had an "open contract" with Cuba, selling crude and refined products based on availability, according to former Pemex Director Victor Rodriguez Padilla. At its peak, Mexico was sending roughly 20,000 barrels per day to Cuba, according to Pemex data cited by the Associated Press. Cuba paid Mexico $496 million for crude and petroleum products in 2025, Rodriguez said in February, money that now flows to private traders instead of Pemex. "If you ask whether Cuba is paying for its shipments, of course it is. We have no overdue invoices under the contract," he said at the time.

The new arrangement changes the counterparty but not the destination. Rather than Pemex selling directly to Cuba's state entities, Mexican private companies with fuel-trading licenses would handle sales to Cuba's newly authorized private-sector buyers. Sheinbaum said her administration is already working on the logistics and hopes shipments resume soon. Her foreign ministry can help interested firms navigate the process and establish connections with Cuban counterparts.

The question is how Washington will respond. The U.S. has maintained an economic embargo against Cuba since the 1960s and views the island as a national security concern. The Trump administration has dismissed Cuba's recent reforms as "superficial smoke signals from the Cuban regime." More pointedly, the January tariff threat remains on the table: the administration warned it could impose additional duties on any country that facilitates oil shipments to Cuba, directly or indirectly.

Mexico is walking a narrow line. The U.S. is its largest trading partner, and both countries face a high-stakes renegotiation of the USMCA trade agreement. Sheinbaum has expressed disagreement with U.S. policy on Cuba but bowed to pressure in January by suspending Pemex deliveries. Now she is testing whether private-sector intermediaries offer enough legal and political distance to restart the flow without triggering retaliatory measures.

Cuba's energy crisis is severe. Chronic fuel shortages have disrupted public services, food distribution and economic activity across the island. Since Mexico's suspension, the only major shipment to reach Cuba was a Russian cargo of 730,000 barrels in late March. The reforms passed last week are meant to attract private capital and ease the shortage, but it is unclear whether they can have a meaningful effect given the threat of U.S. sanctions against anyone doing business with Cuban state entities and leadership.

It remains unclear how many Mexican companies will step forward. Sheinbaum said the Foreign Relations Secretariat can help interested firms make connections. But the U.S. threat of secondary sanctions is a powerful deterrent. For a Mexican private company, selling fuel to Cuba means weighing short-term revenue against the risk of losing access to the American financial system.

Mexico is sending a signal: it does not accept that the U.S. gets to dictate its foreign policy, especially toward a neighbor in crisis. The Sheinbaum administration views the Cuba relationship as a matter of sovereign foreign policy, not something to be outsourced to Washington. But the gamble carries real consequences. With USMCA talks looming and trade tensions already elevated over Chinese transshipment and energy policy, the oil-for-Cuba pipeline is becoming another pressure point in a bilateral relationship increasingly defined by friction rather than cooperation.