Mexico Prepares for Any Outcome in Polarized U.S. Election

As the United States approaches its next presidential election, analysts from the Center for Research on North America (CISAN) at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) are closely watching the razor-thin race between incumbent Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger, Kamala Harris. According to Roberto Zepeda Martínez, a CISAN expert, current polling trends show neither candidate holding a decisive lead, creating what he calls a "technical tie" that offers little clarity on the final outcome.

The lead-up to the election has underscored the complexity and polarization of U.S. politics. Although recent polls have given Trump a narrow advantage, experts warn that fluctuating dynamics could tilt the result at any moment. Speaking during a virtual press conference titled "Elections in the USA: The Final Stretch," Zepeda emphasized that Mexico must brace itself for either outcome, as both candidates bring unique challenges and opportunities to the bilateral relationship.

While Harris’ potential victory might initially seem more favorable for Mexico due to her Democratic affiliation, Zepeda points out that the reality may be more complicated. Harris' voting record as a senator includes opposition to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), a stance that has caused concern among Mexican business and policy leaders. Furthermore, both Democrats and Republicans have increasingly favored restrictive immigration policies, with Harris and Trump aligned in a trend toward tougher stances on immigration and border security.

As Americans cast their votes, Estefanía Cruz Lera, another CISAN analyst, advised a calm and measured response from Mexico. She noted that as preliminary election results trickle in, frequent swings in favor of either candidate are likely, particularly given the early voting rate is significantly lower than previous election cycles. According to Cruz, this signals that a substantial portion of the electorate may be waiting until Election Day to make their final choice. She also highlighted shifting demographic trends within the minority vote: Latino and African American support for Harris lags behind that seen by previous Democratic candidates, although her support among women remains robust.

Diplomacy’s Critical Role in U.S.-Mexico Relations

With an eye on the coming months, CISAN's Academic Secretary, Juan Carlos Barrón Pastor, underscored the importance of diplomatic finesse in managing U.S.-Mexico relations, regardless of who prevails in the presidential race. "The diplomatic channels need to be active now and continue right through until January 20," he said, referring to the inauguration of the next U.S. president. Such continuity, Barrón argues, will be crucial in navigating the challenges that may arise from either administration.

Both candidates, while polarizing within the United States, have voiced views on Mexico that necessitate a proactive response from the Mexican government. Trump, known for his strong rhetoric on immigration and trade, has heightened pressure on Mexico through threats of tariffs on Mexican goods, which could have profound economic implications. Conversely, Harris has been openly critical of corruption and violence in Mexico, particularly regarding the influence of drug cartels. "Neither candidate is particularly friendly toward Mexico," Cruz noted. "These are not new concerns, but the tone and approach could change with each leader, requiring vigilance from Mexican officials."

Zepeda highlighted the significant economic stakes for Mexico in this election. While economic growth continued under President Joe Biden, rising inflation during his term has weakened the purchasing power of U.S. consumers, a trend that some economists suggest could bolster support for Trump. The candidate’s promises of lower inflation and more favorable conditions for American workers resonate particularly among blue-collar voters who have felt the pinch of rising costs.

Mexico’s reliance on trade with the U.S. cannot be overstated. According to Zepeda, roughly half of Mexico's imports originate from its northern neighbor, which is also the country's largest investor. With the USMCA renegotiation on the horizon, Mexico is on high alert, particularly after Trump recently suggested imposing tariffs on Mexican exports to protect American industries. Such measures could disrupt Mexico’s economy, impacting up to 10 million direct and indirect jobs tied to U.S. investments and trade.

Security Concerns on the Horizon

Security remains another critical facet of the U.S.-Mexico relationship, with both candidates signaling intentions that could reshape cooperation across the border. Trump’s policies suggest a potential intensification of immigration restrictions, including mass deportations, while Harris has repeatedly criticized Mexico’s struggles with drug-related violence. These issues resonate on both sides of the border, and for Mexico, they underscore the need for a consistent diplomatic approach.

Despite the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election, analysts at CISAN are cautiously optimistic about the ability of Mexico’s Foreign Affairs and Economy Ministries to maintain a stable relationship with the United States. Both ministries are headed by experienced officials—Juan Ramón de la Fuente and Marcelo Ebrard—who have previously worked with the Trump and Biden administrations. Their understanding of the personalities and policies within U.S. political circles, coupled with their deep institutional knowledge, may enable Mexico to weather the complexities that the next administration will bring.

Cruz and her colleagues at CISAN emphasize that maintaining open channels of communication will be essential. "The relationship won’t hinge on personal connections but on formal ties between government agencies," Cruz observed, suggesting that a professional and measured diplomatic approach will serve Mexico well in a challenging environment.

As Election Day draws near, the stakes for Mexico are palpable. With close economic and social ties to the United States, Mexico’s future is inextricably linked to the outcome of the U.S. presidential race. Whether Trump or Harris emerges victorious, Mexico will need to adapt its policies and priorities to protect its interests in the face of potentially adversarial policies.

Estefanía Cruz summed up the sentiment among CISAN analysts: "Mexico must be prepared to work constructively with either leader while leading in areas where its national interests are at stake. The challenges will be significant, but with strategic foresight and diplomatic resilience, Mexico can navigate these complexities."