Mexico Sugar Exports to US Surge 512% After Market Access Deal

Mexico has regained full access to the US sugar market after years of restricted trade. The US Department of Agriculture now projects Mexican sugar imports will reach 1.15 million metric tons for the 2026-2027 cycle, a 512% increase over the prior year's estimate, according to the USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report published July 10, 2026.

At current prices, the additional exports could generate up to 4.76 billion pesos (approximately $250 million USD) in revenue paid by Mexico's sugar industry to domestic cane producers, the Mexican Presidency confirmed in a statement.

The surge follows direct talks between President Claudia Sheinbaum and US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins, who visited Mexico in November 2025. The dialogue led to the US beginning the regularization of access for Mexican sugar producers and cane growers after years of escalating trade friction.

The US-Mexico sugar conflict dates to 2014, when the US Commerce Department imposed anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Mexican sugar, alleging that subsidized Mexican exports were undercutting American producers. The two countries signed Suspension Agreements that year, setting minimum prices and volume caps on Mexican shipments. Those agreements were renegotiated in 2017 under the first Trump administration, tightening the terms further and effectively limiting Mexican access to roughly half the pre-dispute volume.

While Mexican sugar faced those restrictions, US exports of high-fructose corn syrup to Mexico grew steadily, creating what Mexican officials described as an asymmetric trade flow. The new deal corrects that imbalance, the Presidency said, by allowing Mexican sugar to compete on more equal terms.

The USDA's estimate of 1.15 million tons for 2026-2027 marks the highest projected import volume in the bilateral trade history. Growers across Veracruz, Jalisco, Oaxaca, and Puebla stand to benefit, though analysts note that Mexico's domestic milling capacity and port infrastructure at Veracruz and Lazaro Cardenas will need to scale rapidly to handle the increase.

The deal also carries implications for the broader US-Mexico trade relationship. Sugar was one of several unresolved trade irritants alongside trucking access, shrimp import standards, and dairy quotas. Resolving the sugar dispute, the oldest and most contentious, signals that both governments are willing to address legacy trade frictions.

Whether Mexican mills in Veracruz and Jalisco can ramp up to fill the full 1.15-million-ton allocation will determine how much of the projected 4.76 billion pesos actually reaches growers' pockets. The outcome will shape how Mexico handles similar challenges in the future.