Why peace in Ukraine is far away

With the announcement of the mobilization of 300,000 Russian soldiers, there is a risk that the war in Ukraine will be prolonged, increasing the number of deaths and creating a greater migratory crisis. Experts from the UNAM's Faculty of Political and Social Sciences say that now is not the best time for dialogue and negotiations because peace is still far away and everyone is getting ready for a long, exhausting war.

At the distance press conference, What's next for the conflict between Russia and Ukraine?, Carlos Eduardo Ballesteros Pérez, professor of Contemporary International Politics, described the Russian intervention in the neighboring country as a historic failure, "difficult to assimilate for Vladimir Putin, who has had to modify his strategy, take emergency measures, and concentrate on the Donbas region".

In the face of a prolonged war, Russia is most at risk, because its president is destroying the country's economy, and it has a major problem for the future: losing its relationship with the West. Although "he has approached the Asian powers, such as China and India, which has helped him to face the sanctions against him; his condition is difficult".

Due to the possible escalation of the conflict, an exercise of general prudence must come to avoid it; "we will see how far the Ukrainian counter-offensive can go against the Russian attack; everything is in the air", the university professor mentioned. The danger would be for the nations directly involved, for Europe and the rest of the world.

Peace is far away because Putin is forced to escalate the war and he does it with military mobilization and the threat of using nuclear weapons. It must be taken seriously and seriously.

In addition to the fact that there are no conditions for dialogue, it is observed that the conflict is exacerbated, it is going to extremes, to a war that could generate a stagnation of the long-term conflict in the Donbas region, which would lead to attrition of the Ukrainian army, of Russia, of the western and world block, said Ballesteros Perez.

Likewise, we see protest mobilization in Russia over the president's measures that could increase despite the repression. "A social catastrophe may follow, of people forced to invade a brother country. There is a subway rejection of Putin's policies that will grow, and we will see what happens in the coming days and months in that country", he said.

Natalia Rivera Angel, the specialist in China and Russia energy policy issues, said that Mexico's mediation proposal responds to the tradition of carrying out actions against war, to its pacifist vocation, but more real alternatives are required. Turkey has already done that work, but it has been unsuccessful due to Russia's desperation to grab and hold Donbas.

In that sense, "I don't know if in a president who is trying to win the war at any cost there is room to listen to mediation proposals. I believe that Russia is not planning a withdrawal because that would mean a failure and, on the contrary, what we are seeing is the intention to intensify it".

On energy issues, the European Union's response to the conflict has been to become less dependent on Russian gas, so it has sought suppliers in other parts of the world. The fact that people will run out of this fuel in the winter would have strong political implications, so Russia could be thinking of creating some social problems in European nations and pressure on governments to find a way out of the conflict.

If the war escalates, it will not stem the tide of migration, which will bring a heavy social and economic burden for Europeans. But the repercussions will also be for the rest of the world and we could see an increase in the economic recession in the world in the coming years, warned Rivera Angel.

Speaking, Talya İşcan, an academic specializing in security issues and world conflicts, agreed that during the seven months of the conflict a migratory crisis has been generated with greater impacts on neighboring countries, including Poland and Romania, but eventually more nations will be impacted, which will produce more instability in Europe.

The international community should be committed to addressing humanitarian crises; however, we face impotence, from the European Union and the UN, which have not been able to take a normative act because Russia is a member of its Security Council and has the right to veto.

The offensive Russian reaction before the international community is proof that this is a "proxy" war; that is to say, a conflict between Russia and the non-Western bloc and the nations that support the geopolitical strategy of the Western powers.

The university professor detailed that thanks to the technological reach this is the first conventional war where we can see, and live, what is happening in each territory; but at the same time that gives room for the manipulation of information. "The participation of the media is very outstanding and powerful, unlike past wars."

İşcan said that Russia takes into account the risk of a possible recession, of receiving more economic sanctions, and, even so, it is not going to give up territory. At this point "we should be cautious, look for new negotiating forums and effective treaties to follow up on, attacking problems such as the food and migration crises, before talking about the real nuclear threat, which would not be convenient for anyone."