The Wall, the Tariffs, and the Trade Deal: Mexico Faces a Trumpian Reckoning
Mexico faces a turbulent future with Trump's presidency, as trade policy intertwines with migration and security. The US-Mexico economic interdependence creates potential economic costs. The upcoming review of the USMCA in 2026 could be a point of major tension.
In the shadow of Donald Trump’s renewed political ascension, the dynamics of U.S.-Mexico relations are poised to enter an era fraught with tension, recalibration, and high-stakes diplomacy. According to Mariana Aparicio Ramírez, an academic from UNAM’s Faculty of Political and Social Sciences, this “second stage” of Trump’s influence on Mexico will see trade policy inextricably linked to thorny issues such as migration, security, fentanyl trafficking, and human smuggling.
For Mexico, this new chapter could bring a cascade of challenges: mass deportations, human rights violations, family separations, and perhaps the resumption of debates over Trump’s symbolic — and divisive — border wall. “Trump will have the conditions to carry out immigration reform if he so wishes,” Aparicio Ramírez explained during a podcast hosted by Construyendo el Debate.
The question now is whether Mexico, its economy deeply intertwined with the United States, can weather the coming storm without losing sight of its own national priorities or compromising its sovereignty.
As Trump prepares to reclaim the reins of power, Aparicio Ramírez warns of a critical risk: the renegotiation or outright denunciation of key trade agreements, including the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). With a Republican majority likely to back him in Congress, Trump may have the political leverage to impose tariffs or renegotiate terms to align with his vision of “America First.”
“Trump could generate significant political changes in trade policy with allies, including Mexico,” Aparicio Ramírez noted. She emphasized that Mexico’s reliance on the U.S. is a double-edged sword: over 80% of Mexico’s exports are destined for its northern neighbor. This deep interdependence has made Mexico an indispensable cog in the U.S. production chain, bolstering its global competitiveness.
Yet, this very reliance leaves Mexico vulnerable to coercion. The 2026 review of the USMCA looms large as a potential flashpoint. Aparicio Ramírez predicted that Trump’s administration could use this milestone as a pressure point, turning the agreement into a mechanism of leverage.
Still, she pointed out, the economic interdependence between the two nations means that decoupling could come at a steep cost — not only for Mexican producers but also for American consumers. Despite this, Trump’s commanding influence over the legislative and judicial branches could enable his administration to absorb the initial political and economic fallout of a more protectionist stance.
A Familiar Adversary, A New Reality
The migration crisis is likely to become a cornerstone of Trump’s policy agenda. Aparicio Ramírez anticipates the possibility of mass deportations underpinned by an aggressive rhetoric that blurs the lines between political theater and actionable policy. Mexico, however, is not without tools to counter such moves.
“Mexico has the largest network of consulates in the world,” Aparicio Ramírez observed, emphasizing that the country must prioritize defending the rights of Mexicans abroad. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, she argued, should already have contingency plans in place to respond to mass deportations or abrupt shifts in U.S. immigration policy.
But beyond safeguarding its diaspora, Mexico must also adopt a strategic, level-headed approach in its dealings with Trump’s administration. “We should not be so sensitive,” Aparicio Ramírez advised, urging Mexican policymakers to distinguish between Trump’s combative rhetoric and the realities of political praxis.
Despite the uncertainties, Aparicio Ramírez suggested that Mexico’s leaders have one advantage: familiarity. Trump’s rhetoric and strategies, though amplified, are not entirely new. His “new version of himself,” as she described it, builds upon the playbook from his first term.
Moreover, the current Mexican administration has cultivated relationships with key figures in the U.S. political landscape, potentially allowing for a more informed and strategic response to Trump’s initiatives. “Nothing is new,” she remarked, noting that these connections could serve as a buffer against the most extreme outcomes.
As Mexico braces for the next four years, Aparicio Ramírez highlighted the importance of keeping a “cool head” in decision-making. The stakes are high: migration, trade, and security are deeply interwoven in the fabric of U.S.-Mexico relations. Mexico’s leadership will need to navigate these issues with precision, balancing pragmatism with an unwavering commitment to its national interests.
The first 100 days of Trump’s presidency will offer crucial clues about his priorities and political strategy, while the midterm elections in 2026 could redefine the balance of power in Congress. For now, the challenge for Mexico lies in crafting an agenda that anticipates Trump’s moves, defends its citizens, and protects its economic lifelines.
As Aparicio Ramírez aptly concluded, the road ahead is riddled with complexities, but it is not insurmountable. By blending strategic foresight with diplomatic resilience, Mexico can weather this turbulent period — and perhaps emerge stronger for it.
