What Trump’s Presidency Means for Mexico

Here we go again. The drama of Donald Trump’s return to the White House isn’t simply American politics on replay; it's a full-blown, high-stakes soap opera with a script penned by a madman. We’re all reluctantly glued to it, like watching a traffic accident in slow motion—because that’s exactly the pace of politics these days. The man’s come back, but with two million fewer fans, and, despite what his supporters claim, that’s hardly a mandate. It’s more like being “popular” at a family reunion where only half the relatives showed up.

So here’s the real question everyone’s asking: How much power will Trump actually wield this time around? Are Republicans in the House lining up as his personal disciples, or are they simply waiting to jump ship when things inevitably hit rough waters? The answer to that will dictate just how heavy his influence will be in shaping laws, policies, and the inevitable shenanigans in Washington over the next four years.

To be clear, if Trump had a middle name, it would be “Unpredictable.” No government—certainly not Mexico’s—is prepared to deal with the zig-zags, the complete disregard for traditional channels, and the occasional Twitter explosion that will inevitably characterize his second go-round. This is the kind of administration that’ll fly off the handle at the mere suggestion of diplomacy. The current Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, put up a valiant effort in dealing with Trump’s erratic nature back when he was Foreign Minister, and his strategies might give Mexico a slight edge, but it’s going to be like trying to stop a tidal wave with an umbrella.

It’s no secret that for Trump, Mexico is the cartoon villain in his action-hero fantasy. Every issue at the border—the drugs, the migrants—well, that’s Mexico’s fault in his eyes, isn’t it? He’s built an entire narrative around it, and the American public laps it up because it’s neat, it’s easy, and it sounds good in a rally speech. Trump has successfully convinced a large segment of the population that he’s the sole custodian of the border. Reality check: that’s about as accurate as saying the sun revolves around Mar-a-Lago.

The “America First” Reality Check

Professor Amando Basurto Salazar of Mexico’s Faculty of Political and Social Sciences summed it up aptly. His message was simple but grounded in reality: let’s not over-dramatize the election; it’s not the end of the world. But Trump’s return does bring consequences for everyone, not just in America but across the globe. This “America First” mantra he belts out like it’s a Beatles tune might make him the toast of Middle America, but to the rest of us, it’s nothing short of alarming. Trump’s protectionist policies are hardly the stuff of cooperation. If anything, they throw a wrench in the works for economies that have spent years interlocking with America’s.

Mexico, in particular, is on tenterhooks. The U.S.-Mexico trade relationship is worth billions—over $300 billion a year. It’s a partnership that’s as symbiotic as it is complicated. But as Professor Salazar reminded us, Trump is hardly a diplomat. He doesn't work with institutions. He doesn’t “do” tradition or proper channels. He conducts international relations as if he’s trying to buy a used car from a dodgy salesman. There’s no guarantee that the Mexican government can forge a stable relationship with him—Trump’s alliances operate on the basis of loyalty, not ability. And loyalty is a fickle currency.

Here’s where it gets interesting. Trump’s win is less of an American fluke and more of a global trend in populism. We’re seeing it everywhere: right-wing populists in Poland, left-wing populists in Latin America. Trump is just one head of this hydra. But the unsettling bit is that his style of politics doesn’t just remain within U.S. borders. It has a ripple effect that’s felt across the globe.

Paz Consuelo Márquez Padilla from the Center for Research on North America was spot on. She pointed out that Trump isn’t a standalone act; he’s part of a larger narrative. His return underscores how populism is sweeping the globe, and no one’s truly insulated from it. We may think of populists as nationalist figures, but the ideology spreads like wildfire—fueled by frustration, economic grievances, and, of course, social media algorithms.

A Divided GOP and Trump’s Fading Aura

Trump’s fan base isn’t what it once was. He’s back, but with a bit of a dent in his shiny armor—two million fewer votes than the last time around, to be precise. The man has lost some of his luster, but don’t mistake that for weakness. As Professor Salazar said, he may have fewer votes, but he still carries a tremendous amount of influence. The question now is whether that influence will translate into legislative action, or if it will fizzle out in the swamp of Capitol Hill’s division. Are the Republicans just Trumpists in a new coat of paint, or are they going to be the brakes on his wilder ideas?

What will matter most here is the actual composition of the House. If it’s stacked with Trump loyalists, he’ll run wild. But if moderates find a foothold, we might just see a Congress that tempers the extremism that characterized his first term.

Jesús Gallegos Olvera, another academic in the know, put it perfectly: we’re not friends, we’re business partners. If Mexico is under any delusion that Trump sees them as an ally, they’d best shake that notion quickly. Trump has been crystal clear on this matter—Mexico is the convenient bogeyman when he needs to rile up his base, and a business partner when he needs them to sign on the dotted line. It’s a relationship of necessity, not camaraderie.

And yet, for Mexico, there’s a glimmer of opportunity. Nearshoring, or bringing supply chains closer to home, is Mexico’s ticket to leverage in this fraught relationship. If Trump pushes away global trade partners, Mexico can offer itself as a prime relocation spot. The economic interdependence between the two countries means they’ll continue to work together, but don’t expect any warm embraces. This is strictly business.

The Verdict

Trump’s return to power isn’t good or bad news, as Gallegos wisely pointed out—it’s simply a fact. A fact that demands action. Mexico will have to strategize like never before, understanding that Trump is no ally in the conventional sense. There will be battles over security, immigration, and trade. The relationship is a rocky one, dictated by Trump’s whims, but it’s one that both sides must navigate, like it or not.

So, let’s brace ourselves for the unpredictable. We’ve got a global stage where populists are the main act, and the rest of us—well, we’re just along for the ride, desperately hoping that the rollercoaster doesn’t go off the rails. But, as ever, we’ll watch the spectacle. Because that’s the Trump show for you, isn’t it? No one’s truly safe, but everyone’s watching.